|Original photo which included that white space: Bonhams|
I've paid attention to a few of these cycles, all of which were reflections of certain market conditions that grew into speculative rushes and eventually collapsed as such things are wont to do. This time, though I'm really wondering what is going on. This is way too big and has gone on too long and makes increasingly little sense. Emerging market players? Tax dodges? Has market inertia just become a perpetual motion machine?
I think one fundamental market condition underpins a lot of the general runup lately: there is (technical term here) fuck-all else that makes a lot of sense in the current investment sphere right now, especially if your idea of "makes sense" is "consistent 10+% annual returns." But really, unless you're in it for the long haul with green energy or biotech or something else on the relative margins, the opportunity to play pump-and-dump games is slim pickings right now. Indices may be posting record highs, but it's a broad situation; there's no hot sector right now. (Bo-ring.)
So we go to collectibles, especially ones as approachable and media-friendly and well-documented (sort of, occasionally subject to inaccuracy and outright fraud) as cars. And who can argue with the appeal? Sure, if you've got the funds, go right ahead and pick up a Gullwing or Carrera RS or something else that looks pretty and costs something respectable. Have some fun, impress your friends with arcane facts. Next year it'll be up God knows how much.
|$4.2 million worth of alloy-bodied 300SL. Photo: Gooding & Company|
And with that we're off, and the greedy go after what most collectors would consider the bottom-feeders of the classic marques and crank up the hype. We don't need to discuss what's happened to the market values of E30 M3s and 901-chassis 911s. Anything with a Ferrari badge is again being grabbed like a free margarita. If it can be tangentially linked to something great, it becomes great by association and is therefore so much more valuable.
And what happens after all the investment-grade-by-association games get played? Two things: First, everyone becomes an expert and automotive "investment" advice starts to get batted around in certain circles like fantasy sports hunches. Second, everyone goes scurrying into the shady corners to find potential gems - or at least chunks of glass that can be polished up and offered to the market in some form, hopefully before the whole sector craters.
We are now very deeply situated in that last part. Everyone is offering next-big-thing advice, and everyone is casting about for something that just might catch fire in the market. It's now gotten to the point where quasi-respectable sources are putting a "buy" rating on such moaning dogs as the Jaguar XJ-S (among other debatable cases, here) and the Chrysler/Maserati TC (Hemmings this month, God help their credibility).
Joe Kennedy knew that it was time to run from the stock market in 1929 when he was getting investment tips from his shoe-shine boy. If an amateur blogger can be considered to be at about that same position on the food chain in an era when it is somehow cool to wear sneakers with a suit, then I suppose it's my turn, no?
So, without further ado, I present the SoM MarketMotion℠ Hot List. Standard classic-car investment rules: car should be over about twenty years old, it should have some sort of important associations or history or ability to somehow further abuse the word 'iconic,' and be completely and oh-so-unfairly overlooked (so far) by well-informed collectors (read: speculators). Make notes, check that savings account balance, get in now before the rest of the market gets a clue.
Alfa Romeo 75/Milano
1987-1995 BMW 7-Series (E32)
|Photo: Wiki...wait, are you even reading this?|
|Call your Mom. Buy some flowers for your girlfriend.|
Remember, the market is moving faster than a comp Daytona these days. Don't let the opportunity to be part of this fantastic investment opportunity pass you by.
(Disclaimer: All opinions, news, analysis, prices or other information contained on this website are provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice, nor a solicitation or recommendation for you to buy or sell, as if you haven't figured that out already. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Your mileage may vary. Take any of this seriously and try to call me on it and any institution with the balls to call itself a court will laugh you into exile. Donations willingly accepted. You have something hanging out of your nose.)